Paul Dergarabedian, president of Box-office for Hollywood.com is the entertainment industry's foremost expert in box-office tracking and analysis. With over sixteen years of experience in this field he is one of the most widely quoted movie industry analysts. Mr. Dergarabedian has appeared on hundreds of television and radio news and entertainment programs and also appears in print and on the web every week talking about the trends and issues related to the business of Hollywood.
Tom Cruise in control at the box-office
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When it comes to box-office Tom Cruise is a true force of nature: 33 films over 30 years, $3.2 billion in domestic box-office, Sixteen films over $100 million, Eight consecutive number one debuts, eight consecutive films to gross over $100 million and ten films that were among the top five films in their year of release. If that’s not enough to convince the cynical of this guy’s incredible impact on the movie industry, in 1996 he proved his value as both and action star and a romantic lead with the one-two punch of the first “Mission: Impossible” film in May followed by “Jerry Maguire” in December; these became respectively the third and fourth highest grossing films of that year, a nearly incomprehensible feat that showed the star to be in complete control of his career and at the height of his powers.
With numerous personal and professional highs and lows, a falling out with his adoring public and a recent reinvention and redemption, one of the biggest stars of all-time has come full circle. From teen idol in “Taps,” “The Outsiders” and of course the career-changing “Risky Business” to full blown movie star in “Top Gun,” Cruise quickly established himself as the biggest box-office draw in the free world with an almost preternatural ability to draw crowds to the multi-plex. Over the years he has aligned himself with a who’s who of the best directors in the business and big box-office followed. Kubrick, Spielberg, Scorsese, Levinson, Stone, Abrams, Howard, DePalma, Crowe, Mann, Scott, Jordan, Woo and Pollack all clamored to work with Cruise who seemingly put everything he had into every role and often played against type to full advantage.
As Ron Kovic in “Born on the Fourth of July,” for which Cruise was nominated for an Academy Award for best actor, Cruise (under Oliver Stone’s direction) transformed himself from pretty boy star to serious actor and made believers out of many of his critics. Films like “Rain Man,” “The Color of Money,” “A Few Good Men,” “Interview with the Vampire, “Magnolia,” “Vanilla Sky,” “Minority Report,” “Eyes Wide Shut” and “Collateral” proved there was almost nothing the star could not do if he committed to it and when aligned with the right creative team.
Perhaps more than any other career move, his decision to play the balding, paunchy, loud and obnoxious Les Grossman in the 2008 hit “Tropic Thunder” was pivotal in redefining his public image and proving that the guy is still one hell of a dancer. Most recently at the MTV Movie awards he busted out in the full Grossman persona and was the hit of the show.
This now leads us to Twentieth Century Fox’s release on Wednesday of the action comedy “Knight and Day” which reunites Cruise with “Vanilla Sky” co-star Cameron Diaz in a film that combines action, comedy and romance into one complete package. After positive sneaks of the film this past weekend it will be interesting to see how the film, directed by James Mangold (“3:10 to Yuma,” “Cop Land”) performs this week and into the upcoming weekend.
Tom Cruise continues his truly extraordinary career while simultaneously creating an indelible impression on the business as a whole, the very definition of celebrity and what it means to be a movie star and controversial public figure.
Toy Story 3 tops another great weekend at the nation’s theatres
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Disney and Pixar do it again topping the box-office chart for the eleventh straight time and posting the second biggest animated opening ever!
Fifteen years, eleven films, eleven number one debuts and arguably the most consistent brand in the film world; the Disney/Pixar collaboration continues to astonish and deliver huge numbers and crtical raves time after time. “Toy Story 3” opens another toy chest full of money with a whopping $109 million in its first three days of release. This is the biggest opening ever for a Disney/Pixar film, the second best animated opening weekend ever and only the third $100 million debut of 2010.
The 3-D component and IMAX were intrumental in this success as family audiences thoroughly embraced the film in these enhanced formats. IMAX had their best animated debut ever earning 8% of the weekend gross ($8.4 million) on just 2% of the screens and proves that this maiden voyage of the IMAX/Disney/Pixar collaboration was hugely successful.
The film that started this major turnaround in the fortunes of the box-office marketplace, Sony’s “The Karate Kid” held well considering the huge competition for families and posted a solid $29 million in its second weekend. The film crossed the $100 million mark in just ten days of release. With solid mid-week grosses and great word-of-mouth, this continues to be one of the shining stars of the summer movie season and should continue to do well in the coming weeks.
At number three with $13.8 million is Fox’s “The A-Team” which debuted last weekend in the number two spot. With a respectable 46% drop, the film’s domestic gross now stands at $49.8 million. The ensemble reboot of the 80’s TV show features Bradley Cooper and Liam Neeson.
At number four is Universal’s “Get Him to the Greek” with a third weekend gross of $6.1 million. Generating solid word-of-mouth, the Universal release dropped a mere 38% and is nearing the $50 million mark.
Paramount/DWA’s “Shrek Forever After” continues to live forever after in the top five with a fifth weekend gross of $5.5 million and an impressive domestic cumulative gross of $223 million. A family favorite that continues to draw audiences in the face of impressive competition from “Toy Story 3” and “Karate Kid,” this film refuses to leave the Top Five.
In indie action the always great Fox Searchlight brought the Jonah Hill, Marisa Tomei, John C. Reilly offbeat family comedy “Cyrus” to theatres and the results were impressive. With terrific reviews, a funny and compelling trailer and now great word-of-mouth, the film in just four theatres generated $180,289 for a per-theatre average of $45,072. Look for this to become a summer indie hit in the next few weeks.
A one-two punch of unexpectedly strong grosses from “Karate Kid” and “Toy Story 3” have turned the marketplace around and give us a solid push of momentum heading toward the mid-week debut of the Tom Cruise/Cameron Diaz action-stylings of Fox’s “Knight & Day” and Sony’s terrific ensemble comedy “Grown Ups” starring Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, Rob Schneider and David Spade.
I was in this piece on CNN about IMAX this weekend
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“Toy Story 3” posts a massive, better-than-expected debut!
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Disney figures show a Friday gross of $41.0 million! This makes the first $100 million plus Disney/Pixar Animated opening weekend a foregone conclusion. This will be only the third $100 million plus opening of the year joining Paramount’s “Iron Man 2” ($128.1M) and Disney’s own “Alice in Wonderland” ($116.1M) and only the second film of the summer to debut with $100 million plus.
This will become the highest opening weekend ever for a Pixar film (see my post on Pixar/Disney from earlier this week) and will give Disney/Pixar their 11th number one debut. It will also become only the third animated film in history to debut with over $100 million.
In addition, IMAX showings generated approximately $3 million and this is the best-ever animated opening day for the giant screen company, easily doubling their previous best animated opening day debut.
Congratulations to the entire Disney Marketing and distribution team and to Pixar Animation on this amazing achievement!
A great Pixar-Fueled weekend at the box-office in store
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After a much-needed boost at the box-office provided by Sony’s “The Karate Kid,” it’s finally starting to feel like summer again at the nation’s movie theatres. Of course the best way to capitalize on this new found momentum is with the best box-office insurance ever: Pixar & Disney. “Toy Story 3″ is the eleventh Pixar release to be distributed by Disney and the results should be staggering. With a ten for ten perfect track record of number one debuts and the potential for “TS3″ to give the Pixar/Disney collaboration its biggest opening weekend ever, this should be another solid weekend at the box-office.
Also debuting in wide release from Warner Bros. is the DC Comic’s western hero “Jonah Hex” starring Josh Brolin in the title role and a very sultry Megan Fox as Lilah and John Malkovich as the thoroughly villainous Quentin Turnbull. The film offers a decidedly more intense and adult-oriented alternative to the family-friendly “Shrek Forever After,” “The Karate Kid” and “Toy Story 3″ and as such should find an adult audience looking for something new and not aimed at the kiddies.
This should be a great weekend with the debut of “Toy Story 3″ which has not only the obvious and revenue enhancing 3-D showings, but the essential and event-making IMAX component as well. The combination of “TS3″ and “The Karate Kid” (which has been posting strong mid-week numbers and should have a minimal second weekend drop) should serve to catapult us out of the box-office doldrums and place us in great position going forward with Fox’s “Knight and Day” on the 23rd, Sony’s “Grown Ups” on the 25th, Summit Entertainment’s “Twilight: Eclipse” on the 30th and Paramount’s “The Last Airbender” on July 2.
Currently year-to-date revenues are up nearly 3.5%, while attendance is off about 3% and for the summer season we are looking at a nearly 10% downturn in attendance vs. 2009. However, prospects for a solid middle-third of summer are running high after the bigger-than-expected debut of “The Karate Kid” and the impressive one-two punch that “TKK” and “Toy Story 3″ will deliver to the marketplace. With the typical summer season having a front-loaded crop of May blockbusters and then a slowdown in June, this may have the reverse of that trajectory with the major strength of summer 2010 coming from the mid-June through mid-July period with films like Fox’s “Predators,” Warner Bros.’ “Inception,” Disney’s “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice” and Universal’s “Despicable Me” among others bringing the mid-summer box-office heat.
A Pixar-perfect box-office track record
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10 films, 10 number one openings, $5.6 billion worldwide dollars. If there was ever a more perfect box-office track record it is certainly hard to find one. In collaboration with Disney marketing and distribution, the Pixar films have collectively changed the face of animation and the numbers do not lie. The perfect melding of technology and pathos, art and science and a company mission statement that makes failure a near impossibility, Pixar has managed to please the critics, the bean counters and most importantly the audience for over 15 years and has done so while making it look easy.
With “Toy Story 3″ set for release on June 18, we could be looking at the best all-time opening for a Pixar/Disney film. The current holder of the Pixar opening weekend crown is 2004’s “The Incredibles” with $70.5 million in domestic revenues. With huge buzz (pun-intended) surrounding this latest installment in the beloved “Toy Story” franchise, plus the 3-D component and a suddenly enhanced box-office momentum in the current summer marketplace, TS3 is poised for a tremendous debut.
Fun Pixar fact: The average percentage of total domestic gross represented by the opening weekend of a Pixar film is an incredibly low 23% (the lower the number the better). That means they, on average, impressively make about four times their opening gross in total domestic box-office.
(In 2008 the top 10 grossing films had an average opening weekend percentage of 32%.) The original “Toy Story” had a 15% opening weekend percentage and earned $191.8 million in domestic dollars, against its opening weekend gross of $29.1 million. That’s a total gross roughly 6.6 times the opening; an astonishing multiple!
Special thanks to the folks Walt Disney Pictures for the verified domestic and international grosses for the ten Pixar/Disney films.
It’s a totally eighties weekend at movie theatres this weekend!
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It’s a totally eighties weekend as the industry is counting on Fox’s “The A-Team” and Sony’s “The Karate Kid” to bring us out of the box-office doldrums and get us back on track. Both films have generated solid pre-release buzz and should collectively and individually inject some much-needed excitement into a movie marketplace that has been suffering from audience indifference of late.
“The Karate Kid” is a terrific update of the hugely successful mid-eighties franchise that brings Jaden Smith and Jackie Chan together in the key roles of master and student in this classic underdog tale. Jaden Smith brings a freshness to the role and true believability as the bullied, but quick learning student of Kung Fu while Jackie Chan gives one of his best and most restrained performances. With a family-friendly PG-rating and a great marketing campaign and release date, look for this “Karate Kid” to kick some box-office butt this weekend. Notably, the first three films of the franchise were also released in the month of June.
When one thinks of “The A-Team,” Mr. T, George Peppard and a pretty cool tricked-
out van come to mind as well as the iconic catch-phrase “I pity the fool.” Well that was the mid-eighties and this is 2010 and we have a new “A-Team” with Bradley Cooper and Liam Neeson in two of the pivotal roles that made this rag-tag group of mercenaries so memorable and incredibly popular during the TV series run from 1983 to 1987. As Tears for Fears, Phil Collins, Duran Duran and Howard Jones ruled the airwaves, Mr. T (on the back of this series and his role as Clubber Lang in 1982’s “Rocky III”) became a mega-star and 80’s icon. The film has gotten solid reviews and great pre-release industry buzz and that may make this weekend a true battleground for 80’s box-office supremacy as the two newcomers try to prove which “Flock of Seagulls” era property can draw a bigger audience.
Of course, Paramount’s “Shrek Forever After” and Universal’s “Get Him to the Greek” will continue to play a key factor in the box-office derby. However, we have to hope that the new films this weekend will create a much needed spark that will start a resurgence at the box-office that will most definitely be capitalized upon by the expected massive response by audiences to “Toy Story 3.” Warner Bros.’ “Jonah Hex” will also be on-deck that same weekend to help put some much needed bite back in to a marketplace that sorely needs a boost.
With Summer attendance off nearly 9.5% from last year, we need a boost from somewhere and perhaps the eighties is as good a source as any to turn a box-office miracle and set us on the right track as we are nearly one-third of the way into the summer movie season.
A major pileup in theatres this weekend as four newcomers hit a depressed marketplace
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Get ready for a post-Memorial weekend pileup at the nation’s theatres as four brand new wide release openers debut in an already crowded marketplace and in the midst of a box-office slowdown. The good news is that there is something for every taste and every age range as the four “food” groups of the genre scale are represented. In the comedy realm we have Universal’s “Get Him to the Greek” starring Russell Brand as his “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” character the musician and notorious lothario, Aldous Snow and re-teaming him with his “Marshall” co-star Jonah Hill. Notably, Sean “P Diddy” Combs has been getting raves for his performance as a record company executive. Great marketing, a funny trailer and a terrific concept may make this one a sleeper comedy hit. Directed by Nicholas Stoller and with characters created by actor Jason Segel, “Get
Him to the Greek” will aspire to get audiences to the movie theatre this weekend.
Lionsgate brings the action genre vibe with the “rom-action” comedy “Killers” starring Ashton Kutcher and Katherine Heigl as ill-fated lovers who find themselves caught in a web of danger and unknown identities in a sort of updated version of “True Lies.” The film combines action, humor and romance into a “date friendly” package that will hopefully draw men and women in equal measure. This genre hybrid has brought us films like “Date Night,” “The Bounty Hunter” and of course “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” and it will be interesting to see if this resonates with audiences enough to draw crowds this weekend.
No genre-laden weekend would be complete without a solid serving of family-friendly entertainment and Fox will let the dogs out as “Marmaduke” brings the kibble home with this PG-rated family film that brings the classic comic strip-canine to big screen life. With hope for a franchise starting weekend, the film features Owen Wilson as the voice of the eponymous canine character, Emma Stone (“Superbad”) as the voice of Mazie and George Lopez providing the voice for Carlos the cat. Kids love dogs, families love family films and with the summer season in full swing, look for “Marmaduke” to have a solid box-office bite when it opens on Friday.
Finally great casting and a truly scary concept deliver the R-rated scares in Warner Bros.’ “Splice” which stars the always-terrific Adrien Brody and Sarah Polley. Solid casting can often elevate the material to a whole new level and Brody and Polley bring their serious acting chops to bear on this horror/sci-fi genre film and take the quality and the pathos up a giant notch and the effect is scarily
effective. As an executive producer on the film, the great Guillermo del Toro (director of the amazing “Pan’s Labyrinth” and the “Hellboy” films), “Splice” takes a “science gone wrong” premise and wrings some truly chilling and disturbing images and situations out of the idea. The relatively unknown Delphine Chaneac beautifully plays the object of Brody’s and Polley’s experimentation and her touching, sensual and ultimately scary-as-hell performance will have many men looking askew at their dates as they leave the theatre. A solid R-rated thriller that should generate way above average word-of-mouth for a film of this type, should give “Splice” unexpected strength for the weekend.
The marketplace needs a boost and it needs it now as the Summer attendance is off around 5% from last year and many films have not performed to expectations. With some luck, these four new films coupled with the current films in theatres can instill the excitement in moviegoers that has been sorely missing over the past month. A savior may come in the form of a re-make of an 80’s classic when Sony’s “The Karate Kid” opens on June 11 and will likely surprise the analysts with a bigger-than-expected debut. Fox’s “A-Team” also opens during this “Totally Eighties” weekend that I hope will help to jump start this all-important movie going season.
I was on Fox Business Happy Hour live from NYC talking SATC2
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I interview the great Carl Gilliard about his craft and career
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Carl Gilliard is a terrific actor who also happens to be a really great guy. His performances in movies, on the live stage and in commericials are always unforgettable. He is also an acting coach and you can reach him at 213-842-9267 for more details.
Thanks to Hollywood.com’s Justin Goudreau for the great edit on this piece.






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